| 21 July 2010
As we roll on in Part IV of our College Football Preview Series it's time to head out west to the waters of the Pacific and the Pac 10. The conference has had perhaps the most tumultuous offseason of any in the land with a star QB getting the boot (Jeremiah Masoli at Oregon), a famous head coach leaving (Pete Carroll at USC), a Heisman trophy getting returned to sender (USC), and major NCAA sanctions being handed down (come to think of it that was USC too, boy they had a s#*! offseason!). To help us sort out all of the remaining pieces in the Pac 10 amongst the fall of Troy is Sean Hawkins of the WSU Football Blog. As long as Ryan Leaf has no more eligibility, hopefully we'll all survive...
1) What's the outlook for WSU in 2010? Are things looking like finally turning around?
Well....it looks like it will be a bumpy ride in year three of the Paul Wulff regime, but the worst definitely looks like it is behind the WSU program. This is a team that went 3-22 the last two seasons, and some unbelievably awful losses have been handed out in that timeframe. But there is optimism that things are turning around. The team from top to bottom should be bigger/stronger/faster than it has been since Wulff took over, and the roster is filled with talented youngsters who have now have actual game experience under their belts from the last year or so.
The offensive line should be much improved, with many from the two-deeps back from last year, as well as a new veteran o-line coach in Steve Morton, who looks to have things headed in the right direction up front. The trickle-down with improved line play will benefit pretty much everyone else, from sophomore QB Jeff Tuel to the running backs and wide receivers. But it all begins with improved line play, which is expected.
The defense should be as good as it's been in years, and especially so along the defensive front. Travis Long and Kevin Kooyman will be the anchors at defensive end, but the biggest excitement from spring ball is how strong JC all-American Brandon Rankin (left) looked at defensive tackle! Rankin was a sack machine in the JC ranks, and has bulked up to 270 lbs to play as an active, disruptive force inside.
But the biggest thing with WSU is that they won't necessarily be judged a success or failure based on the win-loss record in 2010. Instead, the sheer competitiveness of the team on a weekly basis is how they will be measured. Where a 2 or 3-win season would be a huge failure for many programs around the country, for WSU, 3 wins and competitive football will not only be looked at as a success, but it would probably save Wulff's job in the process!
2) What's the one PAC-10 game to circle this year?
There are a few good choices here, so we'll go two ways - best out-of-conference game, then best in-conference game you won't want to miss.
Best OOC game - it could be Oregon State at TCU in Jerry Jones World (new Cowboys Stadium), which should be compelling to say the least. Or even Oregon State at Boise State, where the Beavs will try to bust the Broncos' BCS hopes. Maybe Oregon at Tennessee will be interesting, as you never know with Pac 10 teams heading to SEC country. But for the potential "bigness" of it all, I will go with Nebraska at UW.
Both teams could be unbeaten when they play in week three, and a lot will be riding on this one. Nebraska could be in the mix for a BCS bowl in '10, as they look loaded coming into the year. And UW could take a huge step forward in their rebuilding phase with an upset over a likely top-10 team in Nebraska, not to mention a major boost for Jake Locker's Heisman candidacy. Husky Stadium should be rocking for that one.
The top in-conference game? More than likely it will be Oregon at USC on 10/30, where it could be winner-take-all for the conference title, SC's probation be damned. Even though Oregon has had a rough offseason, losing Jeremiah Masoli among others to suspension or dismissal, they still bring back a ton of starters on both sides of the ball from last year's Rose Bowl team. They should be stacked again and a real favorite to win the conference. Meanwhile USC has to start over with Lane Kiffin, but the cupboard is hardly bare. They have a lot of starters back from last year as well, and should be picked by many to finish near the top of the standings.
3) Which coach is on the hottest seat?
The easy answer would be Paul Wulff. He has to win a few, and show major progress along the way, or else the Wulff regime could come to a grinding halt. But instead, I will say that no other PAC 10 coach is going to feel the heat more than our old friend Dennis Erickson at ASU!
After a 10-win start to his coaching gig in Tempe, ASU has had consecutive losing seasons the last two years. In fact, they have lost 17 games the last two seasons combined, most losses in a 2-yr span in since 1946-'47! Erickson cleaned house in the offseason, hiring a new offensive coordinator in hopes of turning around a 9th place offense from a year ago. But time might be running out in what could be Denny's last stand. ASU plays a really tough road schedule, and the team has very few returning starters, in fact they have just 9 total, fewest of any PAC-10 team. Combine the inexperience with a new offense to learn, and it could be tough for Erickson to survive past '10.
4) Which team will be the biggest surprise and/or disappointment for 2010?
I think Oregon State could once again be there in the end. They have to replace Sean Canfield at QB, so there could be some breaking in there with sophomore Ryan Katz set to take over. Combine a tough early schedule with games vs TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State, and they might get off to yet another slow start where everyone forgets about them after September. But they have a lot of talent coming back, as 17 starters return for 2010. The returnees include RB Jacquizz Rodgers on offense and d-tackle Stephen Paea on defense, the reigning Morris Trophy winner as the best defensive lineman in the conference in '09. And somehow, Mike Riley is able to rally his troops and circle the wagons better than anyone in the country. So while many could write them off early if they start slow, don't be shocked if they are in the top 3 in the conference when it's all said and done.
Biggest disappointment? I will say Cal could be the one that falls short of expectations. They have done this the last several years, but promising starts have evaporated into mediocrity. QB Kevin Riley is OK, and won't kill Cal with mistakes as he is now a senior and pretty efficient in not giving the ball away. But to tell you the truth, he is more known for not coming through in the biggest games vs doing anything special when he's needed the most. They lose Jahvid Best and Tyson Alualu, two first-day picks in the NFL draft, although Alualu might be one of the biggest "overdrafts" in NFL history! Anyway, Cal might get off to a decent start that has some people talking, but if recent history is any indication, Cal could once again be the antithesis of Oregon State with their fast starts/slow finishes!
5) Who is one player to watch?
There are probably three or four legit Heisman candidates in the PAC 10 this year, in UW's Jake Locker, Oregon State's Jacquizz Rodgers, and either QB Andrew Luck of Stanford or running back LaMichael James of Oregon. But of all these players, there might not be a more important one to his team's success - or failure - than Jake Locker.
Experts are saying UW could win in the neighborhood of 7-9 games this year, but that is assuming that Locker stays healthy! A fabulous athlete who is built like a linebacker at 6-3, 226, Locker is a special talent who took huge steps forward last year. The tools have always been there, but Steve Sarkisian and offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier worked hard with Locker to refine his mechanics and turn him into a legit number one draft pick candidate in next spring's NFL draft. But if he were to go down, it is a little scary what's behind him. Backup Ronnie Fouch has transferred, so it looks like Nick Montana (Joe's kid) could be Locker's understudy. Montana might turn out to be a very good college QB in time, and he had a good spring with the Huskies, but it is a real stretch to think that he could be ready to step in and save UW's season if Locker goes down.
6) What's been the biggest story out west this offseason? Realignment drama or the Fall of Troy?
Realignment has been not just a big story this year, but the whole thing has to be one of the bigger stories in PAC 10 history! I know, adding Colorado and Utah doesn't sound like much. You probably think PAC 10 fans need to get out more....but any PAC 10 football fan with a pulse was on edge for about a week there, when it looked like the PAC 10 could become the PAC 16, including Texas and Oklahoma! But we all know how it worked out - at the end of the day, Bevo and Boomer Sooner stayed put, and the PAC 10 becomes the PAC 12 in another year or so.
The good news is that with expansion, much bigger slices of TV revenue "pie" should come with it. Many projections out there estimate that the new PAC 12, with a new TV deal on the way as well as a possible PAC 12 tv channel, could mean up to $15 to $17 million per year, per team, if they split the revenues equally. There is also talk of two divisions and having a PAC 12 title game, which could deliver the same type of revenue that is on par with a BCS bowl! More revenue means better facilities, better salaries for coaches, and just a better chance for the PAC 10/12 to hang in there with the rest of the BCS conferences.
But while the USC news was interesting, outside of LA it really didn't resonate as largely as expansion. I think part of it was USC lost some of their swagger last year, losing 4 games as well as the most successful coach in modern PAC 10 history in Pete Carroll. And that investigation took up to four years, so the actual announcement, while harsh with 30 scholarship losses over three years, well, it was almost anti-climactic.
Besides, the SC thing isn't even fully put to bed, at least not yet. They filed an appeal, which will be heard later in the year, and some experts believe it is possible the penalties could be reduced. So the story is still alive!
7) Finally, who is your favorite to win the PAC 10?
Right now, at least on paper in July, it has to be Oregon. Loaded with speed, depth, and a great offensive system that is tough to prepare for, they have to be considered top dogs for 2010. It would probably be a surprise if they aren't the pick at PAC 10 media day in late July, because top to bottom nobody in the conference can match what Oregon will bring back to the table in 2010.
Coming up on Friday we'll talk to the Bearcats Blog about the Big East and Cincinnati's hopes in the post-Brian Kelly era and on Saturday we'll talk to the North Endzone about the ACC and Virginia Tech football. Yes, we're juiced for college pig!
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